Eighteen months after President Bola Tinubu declared “subsidy is gone,” Ekuson Nw’Ogbunka in this piece writes that the federal government is now putting a number to the fallout: ₦15.8 trillion. Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele says fuel subsidy removal and FX reforms between June 2023 and December 2025 created that fiscal space, with states and local governments taking the lion’s share. But as Abuja unveils its “Nigerians’ Reform Scorecard,” the critical question is whether that money has translated into tangible relief for citizens, or merely plugged bigger holes in government finance.
The federal government says the twin reforms of fuel subsidy removal and foreign exchange liberalization generated ₦15.8 trillion for the federation between June 2023 and December 2025. The figure was unveiled by the Finance Minister and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, during the launch of the government’s “Nigerians’ Reform Scorecard.”
Crucially, Oyedele clarified that the ₦15.8 trillion did not arrive as a line item called “subsidy savings.” Instead, it came through higher revenue collections. The devaluation of the naira increased the naira value of dollar-denominated customs duties and other revenues, while the end of petrol subsidy reduced a major drain on public funds.
Of the total, the federal government’s share is ₦5.4 trillion. The remaining ₦10.4 trillion went to states and local governments via federation allocations. That 34%-66% split shows the reforms were more beneficial in nominal terms to sub-nationals, who now receive larger monthly FAAC disbursements.
Oyedele argued the old FX regime had become a conduit for arbitrage and corruption. “We were subsidising the exchange rates, and that subsidy was not going to the ordinary person or manufacturers; it was going to rent seekers,” he said. In theory, unification was meant to end multiple windows and round-tripping.
Beyond the ₦15.8tn, the minister said the government generated an additional ₦3.1 trillion in independent revenue, mainly from increased remittances by government-owned enterprises. The government also borrowed ₦11.9 trillion incrementally in the same period, but insists borrowing would have been worse without the reforms.
From a fiscal standpoint, the argument is straightforward. Subsidy was unsustainable, costing trillions annually with no targeting. FX subsidies enriched a few importers. By removing both, government has more cash to pay salaries, fund infrastructure, and service debt. The increased FAAC allocations have helped many states pay wages and projects without fresh borrowing.
However, the gains came with immediate costs. Fuel prices jumped from ₦185 to over ₦1,000 per litre at some points. Food inflation, transport costs, and the cost of doing business spiked as manufacturers passed on higher energy and import costs. For households, the ₦15.8tn on paper has not felt like ₦15.8tn in purchasing power.
The scorecard raises questions of tracking. If the money did not enter the Federation Account as “subsidy savings,” how exactly is it being spent? Citizens have seen bigger FAAC figures, but have not seen a commensurate rollout of palliatives, CNG buses, or social programs promised to cushion the pain.
With ₦10.4tn going to states and LGs, the burden shifts. Some states have used the windfall for infrastructure and wage awards. Others have not. Without oversight, the reform dividend risks being consumed by recurrent spending rather than productive investment.
Despite the “fiscal space,” the FG still borrowed ₦11.9 trillion in 30 months. Oyedele says it would have been higher without reforms. Critics argue that if reforms were truly generating savings, the borrowing trajectory should be declining faster, not just slower.
The ₦3.1tn from GOEs is significant. It suggests the government is finally enforcing remittance rules. If sustained, this reduces reliance on oil and borrowing. But it also points to how much was previously leaking.
The scorecard comes ahead of 2027 politics. By quantifying gains, the government is making the case that short-term pain has produced long-term fiscal health. It is a direct response to criticism that reforms have been “anti-people” with no returns.
The minister did not provide a breakdown of how the ₦15.8tn was spent sector by sector. There was also no metric linking the money to job creation, poverty reduction, or GDP growth. Without that, the number risks looking like an accounting exercise.
The reforms did generate real money. FX unification and subsidy removal were economically necessary and have improved government revenues. But economic necessity does not automatically equal social benefit. The ₦15.8tn gain is real on government books. Whether it is real for Nigerians depends on how states and the FG deploy it in health, education, security, and jobs in 2026.
The real test of the “Reform Scorecard” will be 2026 budget performance. Can the government show that this windfall is funding capital projects, not just recurrent costs? Can states be held accountable for their ₦10.4tn share? Until then, ₦15.8 trillion remains a fiscal fact — but its development impact is still a political promise.
